State may boost lotto odds again
By John Moritz
Star-Telegram Austin Bureau

AUSTIN - Texas just can't keep Lotto Fever burning.

Officials are again mulling major changes that they hope will boost ticket sales for the Lotto Texas game, conceding that changes adopted 2 1/2 years ago have failed to revitalize the game that has made millionaires out of hundreds of Texans.

"I'm concerned about the fact that it hasn't been as productive as I expected it to be when we made the last change," said C. Thomas Clowe, chairman of the three-member Texas Lottery Commission. "The major [reason] is because the players have had such good luck. They hit those jackpots more than was anticipated."

Lotto is the game in which players choose six numbers from a pool of 54, hoping to match all six in the twice-weekly drawing to collect the jackpot that starts at $4 million and increases each time no one wins the top prize.

But despite the 25.8 million-to-1 odds against winning, Texas lottery officials are seeing too many jackpots being won at the relatively low levels of $4 million and $6 million that prevent the surge in ticket sales that the state counts on to help fill its coffers.

Officials thought they had solved the problem when they increased the numbers in play from 50 to 54 in July 2000, when the odds against winning the jackpot were only 15.8 million-to-1.

Now, the commission is considering a plan to jack up the odds to 45 million-to-1 under a variety of scenarios. Among them:

Having players choose six numbers from a pool of 59 and giving players who match five of the six numbers a chance to win an estimated $5,000.

Having players chose six numbers from a pool of 59 to win the jackpot, but include a "bonus ball" chosen from a pool of 59. Under this scenario, a player who matches five of the six numbers and matches the bonus ball could collect a prize as high as $20,000.

Having players choose five numbers from a pool of 44 and choose one bonus ball number from a pool of 44. Anyone who matches all five numbers and the bonus ball wins the jackpot. Anyone who matches all five but misses the bonus ball collects a prize as high as $10,000.

Clowe said he does not expect the Lottery Commission to act on any of the proposals for at least a month.

But one persistent lottery critic said state officials are running a risk of killing interest in Lotto Texas for the game's most loyal players.

"They are deliberately trying to design a game that people cannot win, and that's highway robbery," said Dawn Nettles, a Garland resident who publishes a newsletter for lotto players. "To say I'm against it would be putting it mildly."

When it was introduced 10 years ago, Texas' brand of lotto quickly established itself as one of the most successful lottery games in the nation. But its sheen began to dim in the late 1990s as the novelty wore off and players began responding in great numbers only when the jackpots climbed past $25 million.

As revenue from lotto tapered off, the commission floated the idea in 1999 of increasing the pool of numbers to 54. But they backed away after a series of town hall meetings suggested that loyal players would balk. Nettles said at the time that serious players had developed systems based on a 50-number mix and that any change would throw a monkey wrench into those efforts.

When the Lottery Commission came back in 2000 and adopted the changes, Nettles boycotted the game and used her newsletter, The Lotto Report, to blast lottery officials.

At first, it appeared that the change helped the struggling lotto game regain its footing. Lotto ticket sales for the year immediately after the four numbers were added soared 30 percent from the year before as jackpots reached $60 million, $70 million and the record $85 million in March 2001.

But the boom did not last and sales dipped sharply during the next year. In late September, lottery officials announced that they would cut the initial jackpot from $4 million to $3 million to protect the state's revenue stream. But the decision was reversed a week later when players objected and the lottery changed executive directors.

State Rep. Robert Puente, D-San Antonio, said Texas could jump-start interest in similar games by joining in such multistate games as Powerball, in which one jackpot in August 2001 reached the stratospheric level of $295 million.

"The goal is to expand the options for those Texans who enjoy playing those types of games and to expand the amount of money coming to the state treasury and help us with the budget shortfall" that could reach $12 billion next year, said Puente, who has filed a bill to allow Texas to join multistate games. "Every little bit helps."

Texas traditionally has preferred to go it alone when it comes to lottery games, but Puente said the need for fast cash could change the political landscape when lawmakers return to Austin on Jan. 14.

"These games are very popular," Puente said. "People get excited about those big jackpots. Of course, there's always going to be people in the Legislature who are opposed to any sort of gambling. So I guess we'll have to see."

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ONLINE: www.txlottery.org, www.lottoreport.com
John Moritz, (512) 476-4294
jmoritz@star-telegram.com

Read the players response to making it harder to win

88 Ball Proposal - Feb 2003 - The Players Plan - Click here.
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