lottoreport@lottoreport.com
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Originally Posted: August 24, 2015
Revised: August 25, 2015 -
(Corrected figures in jackpot winners chart)
Revised: August 26, 2015 - Added links to supporting documents.
ie ... The Powerball Rule and Excel speadsheets confirming figures
in Winners chart under "Why They Must Change the Rule"
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All About Powerball - Multi State Gaming
Powerball Will Be Obnoxiously Harder To Win
New TX Lottery Commissioners Will Adopt The New Rule
on Sept 27, 2015 To Take Effect Oct 7 ,2015
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Editorial & Opinions by Dawn Nettles
The Basic Changes Coming To Powerball
In a nutshell, they are increasing the odds of the game,
they've increased one prize amount, they are lowering the
number of bonus numbers and they are adding
10x to
the PowerPlay game - but not applicable to all draws.
Their news releases only highlights what they consider to be
"positive" changes - like - you'll be thrilled to know that it'll be
easier
for players to win $4. How asinine - players don't spend
$2 to win $4 - this is not our goal for playing this game.
They also think you'll be elated to know that the jackpots
can reach a billion dollars because of the increased odds - they
really think we're stupid. To reach a billion dollars means players
will have LOST a ton of money first. None of us needs a billion dollars.
That kind money will be destructive. Plus, jackpot winners won't ever
see the true amount that they "really" won because the states will keep
more than their share. (Explained in detail later in this story)
This rule fails to put the best interest of lottery players first and foremost.
----------------------------------
The Details Followed by What's Wrong With
The Rule & Why They Have To Change It
Cost of a ticket will still be a whopping $2.
PowerPlay will still cost an extra $1 if you want to play it.
Players will be selecting 5 numbers from a field of 69 numbers and
1 number from a field of 26 numbers for the bonus number. (5/69 & 1/26)
WOW - that's a bunch of numbers - too many - to pick from.
(Today it's 5/59 and 1/35 which was still too many)
The new odds will be an astronomical 1-in-292 million ...
up from 1-in-175 million. (See chart below for details
in matching each prize category)
Powerball's prize pool shall be 50% of draw sales.
(But players most likely won't see 50% of sales due to the set prizes)
Prize amounts remain the same except the 4 + 1 category. It increased
from $10K to $50K. Though fewer will win it due to the increased odds.
The percentage of sales allocated to pay each prize category has both
increased and decreased - a clear indication there will be fewer winners.
Let me show you the facts (new percentages and the new odds) then I'll show
you why they're changing the rule. The best kept secrets behind Powerball!
| Prize Category (Match) |
Prize Amount |
Effective 10/07/15 %'s Allocated (From 50% of Total Sales) |
Allocations 1/15/12 thru 10/04/15 |
Comments | Effective 10/07/15 Odds by Category |
Odds 1/15/12 thru 10/04/15 |
||
| 5 + 1 | Jackpot | 68.0131% | 63.9511% | Increased allocation but can't trust
them to pay out all that is in prize pool. Increasing the jackpot allocation allows the jackpot to climb faster. Though it does require sales and I suspicion they will fall short in that area. (See next chart for complete explanation) |
1 in 292,201,338 |
1 in 175,223,510 |
||
| 5 + 0 | $1 Million | 8.5558% | 19.4038% | Lowered allocation.
There will be considerably fewer winners. As it was, they didn't have many before. Prize money carries forward in its prize pool. |
1- in- 11,688,053 |
1-in-5,153,632 | ||
| 4 + 1 | $50,000 Increased |
5.4757% | 1.5409% | Increased allocation because they increased the prize amount even though it will be much harder to win. |
1-in-913,129 | 1-in-648,975 | ||
| 4 + 0 | $100 | 0.2738% | 0.5239% | Lowered allocation. Same prize amount but will be fewer winners due to horrible odds. |
1-in-36,525 | 1-in-19,087 | ||
| 3 + 1 | $100 | 0.6899% | 0.8167% | Lowered allocation. Same prize amount but will be fewer winners due to horrible odds. |
1-in-14,494 | 1-in-12,244 | ||
| 3 + 0 | $7 | 1.2074% | 1.9437% | Lowered allocation. Same prize amount but will be fewer winners due to horrible odds. |
1-in-579 | 1-in-360 | ||
| 2 + 1 | $7 | 0.9981% | 0.9909% | Barely lowered allocation. Same prize amount but will be fewer winners due to horrible odds. |
1-in-701 | 1-in-706 | ||
| 1 + 1 | $4 | 4.3489% | 3.6097% | Increased allocation due to fewer bonus numbers. | 1-in-91 | 1-in-110 | ||
| 0 + 1 | $4 | 10.4373% | 7.2194% | Had to increase allocations because they reduced the number of bonus numbers. Should be more winners @ $4 - Isn't this exciting? (sarcastic remark) |
1-in-38 | 1-in-55 | ||
| 100.0001% | 100% | I won't quote overall odds as I feel that figure is a bunch of baloney. |
||||||
The odds are higher than Mega Millions. When Mega Millions increased their
odds to 258.8 million-to-one,
their sales suffered. When Powerball went to
$2 per ticket, their sales suffered. With this change, I predict sales will dump.
Getting Back to the Rule Details
In Texas, if a player does not specify a payment option,
the terminal will default to Cash Value.
This rule does not specify that each drawing will roll by $XX after
each drawing. This proved disastrous for them in the current rule when
they said they'd guarantee a minimum of $10 million increase with each roll.
If they have too many winners, then the prize amount can revert to a
pari-mutuel amount. This is called protecting the states. Let's see, they
don't guarantee to pay out the full 50% and they can keep whatever may be
left over but if players win too much, they guarantee themselves NOT to lose.
I'd say this is one sided.
The MUSL annuity factor will NOT be used in TX.
Hmm ... Texas is not player friendly when it comes to sharing the factor
with TX players. They currently refuse to release Mega Millions factor
when they actually have it. They just don't want players to be able
to figure out how much you won. So much for transparency.
(You have to come to my site to see how much you're suppose to win.)
PowerPlay prizes can be multiplied by 2, 3, 4, 5 or 10 times.
They added the 10x to the mix BUT they have the option to announce
the 10x may not be available for a particular draw. And the 10x is not
applicable to the 5 + 0 - the $1 million prize - it's capped at $2 Million.
PowerPlay does not apply to the jackpot either.
For PowerPlay, the prize pool is 49.969% of sales. However, if
the 10x is NOT available, the prize pool reduces to 45.934%. Hmmm ...
I hope you all see how ONE SIDED the rule is. Now let me show
you what's wrong with the rule. It's vague and full of conflicting language.
In otherwords, it's double talk that should NOT pass in TX!
Read the Powerball rule as proposed - June 2015
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- About The Rule -
This Legal Document Is Ambiguous, Vacillating And Unfair
The new rule says in part, "Advertised Grand Prize shall mean the estimated
annuitized Grand Prize amount as determined
by the MUSL Central Office"
"The Advertised Grand Prize is not a guaranteed prize amount."
"The advertised
Grand Prize in a Powerball game is not a guaranteed amount; it is an
estimated
amount." "The Grand Prize is not a set Prize." Then it says, "In certain
instances,
the Grand Prize shall be a guaranteed amount"
Well, which is it? There's conflicting
statements such as these throughout
the rule. This is how they will shortchange some jackpot
winners.
The rule should be specific as to how much a jackpot winner WILL
receive. It's either a pari-mutuel game or it's not. Can't have it
both ways but they do.
(Chart below explains why it should be
specific - see who gets screwed)
"Prize payments may be rounded down."
Why not rounded up or down - whichever may be the case?
Why not be fair to the players?
Rule says, "prize reserve accounts are funded to the amount set by the
Product group."
This is vague and should specify an exact amount. Exactly
how much is this and does it come from the 50% of sales - the prize pool
that players shall receive?
"Any amount remaining in the prize pool at the end of this game shall be
returned to all lotteries participating in the prize pool." There should be nothing
left in the prize pool - especially since the rule says the prize pool "shall be 50%."
The guaranteed low tier prizes are generally over allocated leaving
excess
prize monies not paid out in prizes. Rule says prize pool is 50% but
low tier
prize winners don't receive their full share of sales because of the set prizes.
California pays ALL pari-mutuel prizes. This is FAIR to the players as they
are assured to receive 50% of sales. But TX and the other states screw their
consumers by keeping a larger portion of the players share of sales
while pretending to do the "right thing." This was Texas' opportunity to
change this unfair tactic but they didn't do it. How very, very sad.
"An amount up to 5% shall be deducted from a Party Lottery's Grand Prize Pool
contribution and placed in trust in one or more Powerball prize pool accounts ...
... is below the amounts designated by the Product Group." Again, vague. A
specific amount should be stated. I tried to obtain this figure from the Texas Lottery
but they never answered my question.
"Once the Powerball prize pool accounts and the Party Lottery's share of the
Powerball prize reserve accounts exceeds the designated amount, the excess
shall ..."
Again, vague. Should specify an exact amount to be fair to consumers.
Ya'll have no idea how important this issue is. This was their excuse for not
paying a jackpot winner all that was in the prize pool that he "shall" receive.
I think I speak for all players when I say the changes forth coming for Powerball is
another rip off. The saddest part of all, is that many people won't understand what's
going on and will continue to play this game in hopes of making their dreams come true.
The only recourse players have to oppose this rule change would be to
simply
speak with your dollar and quit playing the game.
The lottery's
need to make sure you don't win the jackpot
so they can make more money and/or make up for dollars lost since the
last rule change. Making more money is the sole reason for changing the game.
And to make more money, they must make sure there are FEW jackpot winners
and this rule will certainly achieve that goal - all at the expense of the consumer.
Read the Powerball rule as proposed - June 2015
-----------------------------------
Why The States MUST Change Powerball's Rule
Be Warned ... You Won't Like Learning This Tidbit
Now let me draw you another picture so you can fully understand
what's been going on and why they need this rule change.
But before I draw you a picture - let me explain "guaranteeing the advertised jackpot."
You may think this sounds good, but it's neither good nor fair. What MUSL and the states
have done
is they've been "guaranteeing the advertised jackpot amount" even though
it's
NOT
written into the rule. They purposely under estimate
the advertised
amounts
when the jackpots are higher. So, when there's a winner, they only pay the
"amount advertised" or maybe they'll up it a little bit but not to the true amount
that sales supported. Some jackpot
winners did not receive the full amount
that was actually won.
The current rule states .... "Expected Prize Payout Percentages.
The Grand Prize
shall be determined on a pari-mutuel basis. The
prize money allocated to the Grand Prize
category shall be divided
equally by the number of plays winning the Grand Prize."
The rule further
states, "Grand Prizes. The advertised Grand Prize in a Powerball game
is
not a guaranteed amount; it is an estimated amount."
The reason they say "estimated
amount" is because they have to
estimate sales in order to determine how much they can advertise a
jackpot. It's impossible to know total sales until after a draw. But after
a draw, they know exactly how much they have in the jackpot prize
pool and that is the amount a jackpot winner in entitled to receive.
To determine
how much is needed to get a return of the amount advertised,
one has to have the factor.
A "factor" is like an interest rate.
The percentage allocated for the jackpot
currently resides at 63.9511%. But this
percentage, for
the most part, has NOT been paid to winners.
Rather some
winners received
considerably more while others didn't receive
their share.
Let me show you the amount they received vs the amount allocated ....
(Here is a link to the current Powerball rule so you can confirm
what I said, however, when the new rule is adopted,
this link will not be good any longer.)
| Win Date |
Allocated - In Prize Pool (50% of total sales) 63.9511% of players share of sales goes to the jackpot winner |
Winner(s) Paid |
Winner(s) Shorted |
Winner(s) Overpaid |
| 10/23/13 | $129,479,065 | $123,264,611 | $6,214,454 | |
| 2/19/14 | $257,432,613 | $242,189,743 | $15,242,870 | |
| 3/1/14 | $27,125,777 | $34,443,169 | $7,317,391 | |
| 4/23/14 | $88,055,698 | $86,932,220 | $1,123,478 | |
| 6/11/14 | $159,493,324 | $153,530,034 | $5,963,290 | |
| 7/9/14 | $73,311,921 | $73,120,898 | $191,023 | |
| 7/19/14 | $24,227,741 | $36,101,083 | $11,873,342 | |
| 8/9/14 | $48,307,977 | $54,878,049 | $6,570,071 | |
| 9/24/14 | $140,366,029 | $136,154,788 | $4,211,241 | |
| 11/8/14 | $129,857,234 | $126,452,603 | $3,404,631 | |
| 11/29/14 | $47,283,480 | $56,818,182 | $9,534,702 | |
| 2/11/15 | $407,901,138 | $381,138,450 | $26,762,688 | |
| 3/14/15 | $88,757,587 | $88,533,767 | $223,820 | |
| 3/21/15 | $16,343,056 | $33,557,047 | $17,213,991 | |
| 3/25/15 | $7,341,043 | $26,845,638 | $19,504,594 | |
| 4/11/15 | $42,401,023 | $53,440,214 | $11,039,191 | |
| 4/18/15 | $15,260,959 | $33,557,047 | $18,296,088 | |
| 6/3/15 | $122,991,987 | $119,993,157 | $2,998,830 | |
| 6/20/15 | $39,322,832 | $49,566,295 | $10,243,463 | |
| 7/4/15 | $29,036,714 | $42,735,043 | $13,698,329 | |
| 8/1/15 | $63,249,890 | $70,108,349 | $6,858,459 | |
|
Revised 8/26/15 - Added links to supporting documents |
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Is it really fair to all that some jackpot winners receive more
than allocated while others don't? Again, the rule
says the jackpot is a pari-mutuel prize.
You can also see how much they overpaid players by
"guaranteeing" a $10 million increase for each drawing in the roll.
They want to advertise big jackpot amounts to entice sales. In
reality, they should advertise amounts that sales
will support but
they choose to inflate lower jackpot amounts. Go Figure!
What I've just shown you is the very reason Powerball is changing their rule.
They hoped by guaranteeing the advertised amount it would work itself out.
They planned to pay the advertised amount when sales did not support it and
then they planned to offset those losses by under-estimating the larger jackpots.
Their plan failed. (Texas did the same thing and TX lost $100M)
In a nutshell, the $2 price tag was not accepted. Now they are grasping
at straws. Under this new rule, they hope to make money when the
jackpots reach enormous amounts. They expect people to spend
foolishly chasing that dream. The consumers best interest is NOT
their primary concern here. Sad but true.
Examples of Anticipated Astronomical
DRAW Sales They Expect To Occur Often
Below is an example of the consumer spending they hope to see
for
quite a few consecutive draws before a jackpot is won.
(Be sure to notice too how sales declined over time.)
Date - Draw Sales - Advertised Jackpot
02/11/12 - $169,361,618 - $325M
08/15/12 - $172,237,868 - $320M
11/28/12 - $563,131,974 - $587M
11/24/12 - $140,096,440 - $325M
03/23/13 - $163,192,114 - $320M
CA Joined Powerball - 4/10/13
05/18/13 - $464,536,548 - $590.5 M
08/07/13 - $271,009,310 - $425M
09/18/13 - $182,773,492 - $400M
02/19/14 - $183,031,022 - $425M
02/11/15 - $379,050,492 - $564.1 M
02/07/15 - $146,267,368 - $394M
(To determine how many tickets
were actually sold, divide sales by 2.
Also, keep in mind, the odds were
175 million to one.)
Imagine collecting this much over a 3 day period!
Can the People really afford this expense?
The states are preying on players addictions.
----------------------------------------------------
Recent Newspaper Headlines in Other States
"Winning a Powerball jackpot may become even more unlikely"
"NJ Powerball rule change likely means less winners, bigger lottery jackpots
Powerball lottery players won’t like new odds, but changes may boost N.J. revenue"
"New Powerball Odds Could Give America Its First Billion-Dollar Jackpot"
"Tougher Powerball jackpot odds coming in October "
"Powerball: Your odds of winning just got worse — and better"
"Powerball Odds Are Changing
Multistate game changing to create more winners of smaller prizes."
(This means ... more players will win $4 - of course, that's if people still play!)
"It'll soon be harder to win Powerball"
"Changes to make it even harder to win big prizes in Powerball"
- FYI -
Players have contacted me for help to stop this rule change but
there's nothing we can do. It's a huge mistake and like the
Monopoly game, they'll learn the hard way. I just hate to
see them do this to unsuspecting lottery players who spend
all their rent money because they "think" they will win.
How very sad it is that our elected officials allow state
lottery's to sell such a product - a game of chance - knowing
the people are literally throwing their money in the trash can.
-----------------------------
In Conclusion
Thursday, Sept 27, 2015. will be the first Commission Meeting with the
new TX Lottery Commissioners.
One of their first orders of business will be
to adopt this horrible rule. Staff
will convince them that they can't afford
to not be a Powerball
state - they need the money that huge jackpots
will bring in - even IF it's an
unfair game of chance for all consumers.
Keep in mind, Texans only purchase
anywhere from 550,000 to
800,000 + tickets per draw yet there are
292.2 MILLION combinations.
Truth is, sales and our population does not support the new game.
You can't stop them from adopting this rule. A petition won't work. The
only control you have is to speak with your dollar. When this rule takes
effect, I will no longer support Powerball and from what ya'll are telling me,
neither will you. I cut my spending
when they went to $2 per ticket but now
I'll simply quit playing this game. The odds of winning are against me
and I have better things to do with my money.
And, there's one more thing you can do. If everyone would contact
their newspapers, TV s and Radio stations to request that they
not publicize the huge jackpots when they get there, well,
Powerball won't sell as many tickets. Those news stories
entice spending - ask them to stop. It's harmful.
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Related Links
Read the Powerball rule as proposed - June 2015
1st 2015 Rule Change - Withdrawn - Proposed changes to Powerball to take
effect July 2015
Details included in Jan 5th & Feb 11th entry on Daily Page, click here
2012 Rule Change - Read the whole truth about the changes to Powerball.
Don't be deceived. Click here and read Jan 13 & 17, Feb 8, 2012 entries.
PowerPlay - States Profits, Players Losses, Click here
Powerball & PowerPlay Sales by State, Click here
To see how many tickets were actually sold
for players since rule change (1/18/12), click here
Sales by Draw
Current Years Powerball Sales, Click here
Powerball Sales, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
Powerball Sales: 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004
Powerball Sales: 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997
Side by Side - Compare Powerball & Mega Millions Sales
47 states/juriscictions play Powerball ...
Arizona,
Arkansas,
California, Colorado,
Connecticut,
DC, Delaware,
Florida,
Georgia,
Idaho,
Illinois,
Indiana,
Iowa,
Kansas,
Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maine,
Maryland,
Massachusetts,
Michigan,
Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska,
New Hampshire,
New Jersey,
New Mexico,
New York,
North Carolina,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania,
Puerto Rico,
Rhode Island,
South Carolina, South Dakota,
Tennessee,
Texas,
Vermont,
Virginia,
Washington,
West Virginia,
Wisconsin
Wyoming & US Virgin Islands
Mega Million draw sales
Lotto Texas draw sales
The Lotto Report
P. O. Box 495033
Garland, Texas 75043-5033
(972) 686-0660
(972) 681-1048 Fax